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Distribution of inflation outturns - Codera Analytics

Distribution of inflation outturns

Since 1922, 39% of South Africa’s monthly inflation outturns have been above 6% and 34% below 3%. Since adopting inflation targeting, the dispersion of inflation outcomes has decreased and become more concentrated in the 3% to 7% range. Since 2000, about 9% of outturns have been below 3% and 23% above 6%, and inflation averaged about 5.5% over that period (towards the top end of the 3-6% inflation target).