Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the wp-external-links domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home/coderaco/domains/randomsample.co.za/public_html/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6121
Seasonality in GDP - Codera Analytics

Seasonality in GDP

We showed in an earlier paper (https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v89y2021i4p526-554.html) that there was some evidence of predictable seasonality in South African GDP data from 2016 onwards, with Q1 values typically lower than in other quarters. Repeating the analysis on recently revised GDP data, there appears to be less predictable seasonality in the quarterly estimates than before. Grouping GDP data by quarter, we show below that that the mean of each quarter between 1993 and 2015 is centred around the same value. For the period since 2016 (and excluding 2020Q2 and 2020Q3 on account of outliers associated with the lockdowns), Q4 values have been slightly higher than Q3 but there is no discernible residual seasonality.

Before revision

After revision